Trump’s second lucky escape may once again give him the momentum

Before now, much of the focus was on Harris. Now it will once again be on the former president

Former President Donald Trump has once again been caught in the firing line of a would-be assassin. Due to a last-ditch Secret Service intervention, suspected gunman Ryan Routh was unable to use his AK-47 to lethal effect. Routh’s near-miss could nonetheless have far-reaching reverberations for the presidential election campaign’s home stretch and world affairs.
Before Routh’s foiled assassination attempt, Trump’s campaign was reeling from setbacks. Vice President Kamala Harris’s debate victory and non-stop media coverage ridiculing Trump’s “Haitian migrants eat pets” comment dealt serious blows to his campaign.
The latest assassination attempt against Trump could change that, but is unlikely to dramatically reshape the race in his favour. It is underappreciated that less than 10 per cent of the American electorate is persuadable – they know how they are going to vote – and even against the backdrop of a Democratic mutiny against President Joe Biden, Trump’s polling gains after his first assassination attempt were marginal. 
The impact of Routh’s near-miss will, once again, rally Trump’s core supporters around him, though. A September 11-13 ABC news poll showed that the percentage of strong Trump backers amongst Republicans had fallen from 60 per cent in late August to 50 per cent, while the percentage of strong Harris backers amongst Democrats had risen to 62 per cent. If the assassination attempt reverses this trend and energises Republican turnout, it could help Trump to again defy the pollsters and gain ground in hotly contested swing states. 
The prospect of a Trump resurgence will be closely watched by America’s allies and adversaries. Routh’s emphatic support for Ukraine, which saw him attempt to fight for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and recruit Afghans to fight on Kyiv’s behalf, could further antagonise the Maga base towards Ukraine. Days after Trump’s running mate JD Vance called for the freezing of the Russo-Ukraine war along current borders, Ukraine will be watching polling shifts with apprehension while Russia breathes a sigh of relief. 
The scale of polarisation in the US, which has spilt over twice in one summer to assassination attempts on a major party candidate, will please the Kremlin even more. Russian media outlets are warning that hatreds within Western societies will produce a wave of terrorist attacks against politicians and claim that the US authorities fear their own people. China and Iran will surely join Russia in leveraging the assassination attempt to showcase American democracy’s ills. 
Routh’s golf club ambush has injected more unpredictability into the 2024 election cycle. America’s adversaries could capitalise on its internal divisions and bolster their illiberal destabilising agendas.
Dr Samuel Ramani is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute